April 9, 2026 — European markets traded more cautiously on Thursday as optimism over the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire began to fade, with fresh reports of military activity in Lebanon reviving concerns over regional stability.

After Wednesday’s strong rally — including a 5% jump in the DAX — investors are now taking a more defensive stance, questioning whether the two-week ceasefire can hold.

Asian markets closed lower earlier in the day, while European equities showed signs of hesitation as traders shifted back into headline-driven risk management.

Strait of Hormuz Back in Focus

One of the main concerns remains the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.

The ceasefire had initially raised hopes that the waterway would reopen and help stabilize energy markets. However, new reports suggesting renewed disruption have added fresh uncertainty.

Any prolonged closure would likely push oil prices higher again and weigh on broader market sentiment.

Oil Prices Recover

Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after a sharp sell-off in the previous session.

• Brent crude rose back to around $97.35
• WTI crude traded near $97.43

The recovery reflects continued doubts that energy supply risks in the region have fully eased.

ECB Pressure Still Limits Upside

Markets are also keeping an eye on inflation risks in Europe.

The European Central Bank recently revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may need to remain cautious on rate cuts.

That could limit further upside in European stocks, especially if energy prices remain elevated.

Key Assets in Focus

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1662, supported by a softer U.S. dollar but capped by Europe’s energy exposure.
• Gold rebounded toward $4,676, as traders continued to seek protection against geopolitical uncertainty.

Market View

For now, markets appear to be treating the ceasefire as a temporary pause rather than a lasting resolution.

Traders are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in Lebanon, Iran, and the Persian Gulf, with oil prices likely to remain the key driver of sentiment through the rest of the European session.

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